Kiplinger Business Forecasts
It was early winter 2012 and the only vote the media and pundits had on their radar was for President of the United States, but at Kiplinger Business Forecasts, a long-trusted economic and geopolitical forecasting tool for business and investors, all elections have economic ramifications.
Ken Bazinet huddled with all available analytical data, including polling, state budget outlays and revenues, demographics, census and campaign finance records, as well as notes from primary source interviews. Responsible for three forecasts a week for subscribers, Ken knew his latest analysis and projection would be challenged by the old guard at Kiplinger. His forecast: Colorado and Washington would be the first states to legalize recreational marijuana.
Months later he would produce a forecast that Alaska would be the first “Red State" to legalize recreational marijuana. As expected, senior editors and analysts challenged the forecast, asking, "Why now after years of failed attempts?”
Defending his calculation, Ken pointed to four factors: economics (state coffers were empty, and so were taxpayer's pockets); the voter initiative campaigns would be sufficiently funded; President Obama’s campaign would help pull out pro- legalization voters; and enough anti-prohibition libertarians would ensure the measures edged out the opposition.
It happened nine months later. With Alaska, Ken calculated that another well-funded pro-legalization campaign would emerge and unite the libertarian/anti-prohibition right and the core liberal left coalition to victory. It happened the following federal election cycle.
By the way, Ken's Kiplinger forecast for the presidential election? A month before the 2012 GOP primaries began he had already projected an Obama vs. Mitt Romney finale, with the president winning a second term.